Introduction

The PC is dead. Technology gurus assure us that the PC is passe, and we are entering a new era of
computing, often referred to as ubiquitous or pervasive computing. It is to be dominated by information
appliances, specialized and easy to use devices that avoid the complexity of the PC. An enthusiastic
cover story in Newsweek heralded the wonders of the coming new age: “Your alarm clock might ring
later than usual if it logs on to find out that you don’t have to get the kids ready for school – snow day!”
[Levy]. The most prominent proponent of the post-PC movement is Don Norman, whose influential
book, The Invisible Computer, presents detailed criticisms of the PC and a vision of an information
appliance future.
Even Bill Gates accepts most of the gospel of the invisible computer. He argues that the PC will
continue to play a central role, but that it “will also work in tandem with other cool devices,” and that
we will be able to share our data across different machines in a seamless fashion [Gates].
Are we entering a new era, and is it going to fulfill all the extravagant promises that are made for it?
There are reasons to temper our enthusiasm and be skeptical. We can distinguish three main predictions
by the advocates of the invisible computer:
(a) There will be a proliferation of information appliances.
(b) Information appliances will eliminate the frustrations of the PC.
(c) The dominance of computing by the PC and Microsoft will end.
My prediction is “yes” on (a), a decided “no” on (b), and a “maybe” on (c). Information appliances
will be popular, since they will provide many novel services that the PC is ill-suited for, and will do so
in user-friendly ways. However, they will introduce their own complexity, and the level of frustration
with technology will not decrease. This is a result of the conflict between usability and flexibility. The
human-centered engineering advocated by Norman is feasible, but only when technologies and markets
are mature. The information appliance market will be anything but mature for a long time to come. The
emphasis in information processing has been, and is likely to continue to be, on development of novel
applications. Further, the PC, in spite of its shortcomings, may indeed manage to play a key role in the
new era. Arguments supporting these predictions are presented in later sections.
If the level of frustration is not going to decrease, is there any point in developing new technologies,
and in paying any attention to ease of use? There certainly is. We will still be frustrated, but at a higher
level of functionality, and there will be more of us willing to be frustrated. Just consider the Mosaic
browser. It lowered the complexity of accessing the World Wide Web below some magic threshold
and drew millions of people onto the Internet. These millions of new users then created new content,
which drew in millions of additional users. That is how the Internet graduated from a research toy
to a revolutionary tool that is transforming mainstream society. However, we now get frustrated by
unreliable servers, network congestion, and stale URLs, problems that we did not worry about just a
brief half-dozen years ago.

The main point of this essay is not to debunk information appliances, but to temper the overenthusiastic
promises that are being made for them. In Section 7 some suggestions are also made for
a smoother introduction of information appliances. It appears essential to develop systems that allow
for setting the flexibility at different levels for different users. It will also be necessary to provide for
remote administration of home networks by experts, leading to the rise of a new outsourcing business.