The visible problems of the invisible computer

The central paradox of information appliances is that they are aimed for a mature market with a
mature technology, but their wide spread will ignite an explosion of innovation that will destroy any
stability that might exist. Don Norman argues in his book The Invisible Computer that the PC was aimed
at the “early adopters” (in the terminology popularized by Geoffrey Moore [Moore], see also [Rogers]).
The next step is to design information appliances for the mass market. He advocates a “user-centered,
human-centered, humane technology of appliances where the technology of the computer disappears
behind the scenes into task-specific devices that maintain all the power without the difficulties” (p. viii
of the Preface in [Norman]).
Norman’s vision is certainly an appealing one. His book cites the instructive story of radio. It
started out as a complicated device that required much practice from users to obtain even a noisy
signal. The user instructions for an early radio reproduced in [Norman] illustrate beautifully how far
we have come. Whereas the first radio users had to have the patience of Job, today we can select any
radio from among hundreds of models, take it home, plug it into the electric outlet, push some buttons,
and listen to our favorite music station. There is great technology inside the radio (technology that
keeps improving from one generation to another), but we do not have to know anything about it.
Don Norman would like computers to evolve the way radio receivers did. The problem is that with
radio, we know well what we want, since the basic services we desire (such as music, talk shows, and
news reports) are well understood and stable. That is simply not what we will see with information
appliances, not for a long time. We cannot know how people will want to use information appliances.
Note that even the Palm Pilot, beloved of millions of users, and frequently cited as the ideal outcome
of the human-centered engineering advocated by Norman, is not stable. Not only is there a succession
of new models from its manufacturer, but there are myriads of accessories offered by outside suppliers
for wireless communication, control of other devices, and so on.
Even the user-friendly radio that makes such an effective case for Norman’s proposals is not likely
to remain stable and user-friendly. It is likely to be swept up in the whirlwind of change that information
appliances will unleash, since we will want our radios to communicate with our other gadgets.
Thus even from a high level systems view, there are reasons to be skeptical about the ability of
information appliances to fulfill all their promises. Next we look at what specifically is likely to go
wrong.